---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/EstimatingModels.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  12 Nov 2016, 20:30:08

. **************************************************************;
. *Author: Jeff Carter                                         *;
. *Date: Saturday, November 12, 2016                         *;
. **************************************************************;
. use "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Data/TermLimitsAnalysisData.dta", clear;

. ** Primary Unconditional Analyses **;
. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -693.51179  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -666.06519  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -665.82624  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -665.82617  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -665.82617  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     209.72
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -665.82617                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1664

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6333179   .2238092    -2.83   0.005    -1.071976     -.19466
     hawkish |   .3012604    .092528     3.26   0.001      .119909    .4826119
     rivalry |   1.398329    .166415     8.40   0.000     1.072161    1.724496
     numbord |   .0761529   .0308811     2.47   0.014      .015627    .1366787
  parliament |  -.2521373   .1741676    -1.45   0.148    -.5934995    .0892249
      gender |   .5925371   .2977542     1.99   0.047     .0089495    1.176125
       peace |  -.2386972   .0535697    -4.46   0.000    -.3436918   -.1337026
      peace2 |   .0112133   .0043499     2.58   0.010     .0026876    .0197389
      peace3 |  -.0001434   .0000873    -1.64   0.101    -.0003145    .0000278
       _cons |  -2.275419    .223968   -10.16   0.000    -2.714388    -1.83645
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Primary/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Primary/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -695.42842  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -669.03183  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -668.82246  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -668.82241  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     207.56
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -668.82241                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1626

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6717489   .2248983    -2.99   0.003    -1.112542   -.2309563
    hawkish2 |   .2165821   .0987181     2.19   0.028     .0230982    .4100661
     rivalry |   1.418854   .1666488     8.51   0.000     1.092229     1.74548
     numbord |   .0797735   .0309819     2.57   0.010       .01905     .140497
  parliament |  -.2334795   .1757185    -1.33   0.184    -.5778814    .1109224
      gender |    .525686   .2932987     1.79   0.073    -.0491689    1.100541
       peace |  -.2463629   .0534099    -4.61   0.000    -.3510445   -.1416814
      peace2 |   .0116577    .004341     2.69   0.007     .0031496    .0201658
      peace3 |  -.0001492    .000087    -1.71   0.086    -.0003197    .0000213
       _cons |  -2.150696   .2133544   -10.08   0.000    -2.568863   -1.732529
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Primary/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Primary/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck milservice  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -684.92716  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -658.23327  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.98895  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.98889  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     210.77
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -657.98889                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1678

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6582403   .2290477    -2.87   0.004    -1.107166    -.209315
  milservice |   .4287625   .1698567     2.52   0.012     .0958495    .7616755
     rivalry |   1.460593   .1686086     8.66   0.000     1.130126     1.79106
     numbord |   .0843092   .0306121     2.75   0.006     .0243106    .1443079
  parliament |  -.2046764   .1762323    -1.16   0.245    -.5500854    .1407325
      gender |   .5025896    .300677     1.67   0.095    -.0867265    1.091906
       peace |  -.2431427    .053823    -4.52   0.000    -.3486339   -.1376514
      peace2 |    .011471   .0043482     2.64   0.008     .0029487    .0199933
      peace3 |  -.0001469   .0000871    -1.69   0.092    -.0003176    .0000239
       _cons |  -2.170284   .2175833    -9.97   0.000     -2.59674   -1.743829
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Primary/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Primary/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Additional Controls  ***;
. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish   rivalry numbord parliament gender civwar  rgdppc gdpgrowthpct majpow mm peace peace2 peac
> e3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -790.1107  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -676.39536  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.45454  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.60652  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.60435  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.60435  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2208
                                                  Wald chi2(14)   =     261.73
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -632.60435                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1993

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.4849004   .2466277    -1.97   0.049    -.9682818   -.0015189
     hawkish |   .1523163   .1000946     1.52   0.128    -.0438654     .348498
     rivalry |   1.361251   .2051285     6.64   0.000     .9592064    1.763296
     numbord |   .1219614    .032207     3.79   0.000     .0588368     .185086
  parliament |  -.3350142    .196599    -1.70   0.088     -.720341    .0503127
      gender |    .583316        .32     1.82   0.068    -.0438724    1.210504
      civwar |   .3159555   .2176776     1.45   0.147    -.1106848    .7425958
      rgdppc |    .000046     .00001     4.59   0.000     .0000264    .0000656
gdpgrowthpct |   -.002612   .0107999    -0.24   0.809    -.0237794    .0185554
      majpow |   .4352808   .2590935     1.68   0.093    -.0725332    .9430947
          mm |  -.2179493   .5644713    -0.39   0.699    -1.324293    .8883941
       peace |  -.2390991   .0548997    -4.36   0.000    -.3467006   -.1314976
      peace2 |    .011851   .0044538     2.66   0.008     .0031217    .0205803
      peace3 |  -.0001662   .0000897    -1.85   0.064    -.0003419    9.57e-06
       _cons |  -3.011002   .2967667   -10.15   0.000    -3.592654    -2.42935
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b15, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta", rep
> lace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish2   rivalry numbord parliament gender civwar  rgdppc gdpgrowthpct majpow mm peace peace2 pea
> ce3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -790.1107  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -677.09051  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -634.30401  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.46549  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.46341  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.46341  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2208
                                                  Wald chi2(14)   =     260.02
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -633.46341                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1983

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.4974472   .2480396    -2.01   0.045    -.9835959   -.0112986
    hawkish2 |   .0815762   .1137572     0.72   0.473    -.1413839    .3045363
     rivalry |   1.356039   .2046464     6.63   0.000     .9549391    1.757138
     numbord |   .1236547   .0321493     3.85   0.000     .0606433    .1866661
  parliament |  -.3385726   .1998076    -1.69   0.090    -.7301884    .0530432
      gender |   .5240961   .3148161     1.66   0.096    -.0929322    1.141124
      civwar |   .3487447   .2164877     1.61   0.107    -.0755635    .7730529
      rgdppc |   .0000458   9.94e-06     4.61   0.000     .0000263    .0000653
gdpgrowthpct |  -.0019565    .010773    -0.18   0.856    -.0230712    .0191582
      majpow |   .4958109   .2519664     1.97   0.049     .0019659    .9896559
          mm |  -.2229968   .5759647    -0.39   0.699    -1.351867    .9058732
       peace |  -.2430347   .0548876    -4.43   0.000    -.3506124   -.1354571
      peace2 |   .0121022    .004463     2.71   0.007     .0033549    .0208494
      peace3 |  -.0001699   .0000899    -1.89   0.059    -.0003461    6.24e-06
       _cons |  -2.938158   .2899524   -10.13   0.000    -3.506454   -2.369862
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b15, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta", r
> eplace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck milservice   rivalry numbord parliament gender civwar  rgdppc gdpgrowthpct majpow mm peace peace2 p
> eace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -782.38606  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -667.2469  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -625.30983  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.41469  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.41267  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.41267  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2146
                                                  Wald chi2(14)   =     260.00
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -624.41267                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.5857786   .2538981    -2.31   0.021     -1.08341   -.0881475
  milservice |  -.0616004   .2057931    -0.30   0.765    -.4649474    .3417466
     rivalry |   1.376745   .2083909     6.61   0.000     .9683062    1.785184
     numbord |   .1281164   .0321267     3.99   0.000     .0651492    .1910836
  parliament |   -.373988   .2037604    -1.84   0.066     -.773351     .025375
      gender |   .4385146   .3229204     1.36   0.174    -.1943977    1.071427
      civwar |   .3618145   .2188979     1.65   0.098    -.0672174    .7908465
      rgdppc |   .0000459   .0000101     4.56   0.000     .0000262    .0000657
gdpgrowthpct |    .000056   .0115419     0.00   0.996    -.0225656    .0226776
      majpow |   .5423085   .2644197     2.05   0.040     .0240554    1.060562
          mm |  -.1914885   .5678671    -0.34   0.736    -1.304488    .9215106
       peace |  -.2454439   .0551439    -4.45   0.000     -.353524   -.1373638
      peace2 |   .0122532   .0044521     2.75   0.006     .0035271    .0209792
      peace3 |  -.0001726   .0000895    -1.93   0.054    -.0003481    2.84e-06
       _cons |  -2.848761   .2887806    -9.86   0.000    -3.414761   -2.282762
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b15, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Conflict Severity  ***;
. gen wardv2 = 0;

. replace wardv2 = 1 if cwinit == 1 & wardv == 0;
(186 real changes made)

. replace wardv2 = 2 if wardv == 1;
(71 real changes made)

. ologit wardv2 lameduck hawkish   rivalry numbord parliament gender  peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -950.18518  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.37527  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -812.94471  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -812.76747  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -812.76739  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     221.91
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -812.76739                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1446

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      wardv2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |    -.63323   .2245582    -2.82   0.005    -1.073356   -.1931041
     hawkish |    .295922   .0901218     3.28   0.001     .1192864    .4725575
     rivalry |   1.440053   .1648532     8.74   0.000     1.116947     1.76316
     numbord |   .0784842   .0294458     2.67   0.008     .0207716    .1361968
  parliament |  -.2123276   .1742084    -1.22   0.223    -.5537697    .1291145
      gender |   .5391733   .2917507     1.85   0.065    -.0326475    1.110994
       peace |  -.2398017   .0530747    -4.52   0.000    -.3438262   -.1357772
      peace2 |   .0112005   .0043756     2.56   0.010     .0026245    .0197765
      peace3 |  -.0001418   .0000887    -1.60   0.110    -.0003156     .000032
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |   2.307419   .2238272                      1.868726    2.746113
       /cut2 |   3.835426    .241317                      3.362454    4.308399
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Severity/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Severity/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. ologit wardv2 lameduck hawkish2   rivalry numbord parliament gender  peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -950.18518  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.48099  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.54369  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.38454  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.38447  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     217.58
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -815.38447                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1419

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      wardv2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6708334   .2258676    -2.97   0.003    -1.113526    -.228141
    hawkish2 |   .2332412   .1032173     2.26   0.024     .0309391    .4355434
     rivalry |   1.461055   .1653091     8.84   0.000     1.137056    1.785055
     numbord |   .0817334   .0295551     2.77   0.006     .0238065    .1396602
  parliament |  -.1907116   .1778863    -1.07   0.284    -.5393624    .1579391
      gender |   .4749347   .2865568     1.66   0.097    -.0867063    1.036576
       peace |  -.2485656   .0529736    -4.69   0.000     -.352392   -.1447392
      peace2 |   .0117195   .0043763     2.68   0.007     .0031421    .0202969
      peace3 |  -.0001488   .0000886    -1.68   0.093    -.0003225    .0000249
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |   2.192015   .2135422                       1.77348     2.61055
       /cut2 |   3.712419   .2298284                      3.261964    4.162874
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Severity/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Severity/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. ologit wardv2 lameduck milservice   rivalry numbord parliament gender  peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -942.15851  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.38098  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.63242  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.45153  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.45146  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     222.12
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -804.45146                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1462

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      wardv2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6576664   .2292985    -2.87   0.004    -1.107083   -.2082496
  milservice |   .4421678   .1711222     2.58   0.010     .1067746    .7775611
     rivalry |   1.506663   .1671851     9.01   0.000     1.178987     1.83434
     numbord |   .0863816   .0291252     2.97   0.003     .0292972     .143466
  parliament |  -.1639161   .1768272    -0.93   0.354    -.5104911     .182659
      gender |   .4431453   .2925428     1.51   0.130    -.1302281    1.016519
       peace |  -.2448931   .0533574    -4.59   0.000    -.3494717   -.1403145
      peace2 |   .0115062   .0043811     2.63   0.009     .0029194     .020093
      peace3 |  -.0001461   .0000887    -1.65   0.100    -.0003199    .0000278
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |   2.208906   .2161319                      1.785295    2.632517
       /cut2 |   3.742627   .2317223                      3.288459    4.196794
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Severity/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Severity/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Single vs. Multiple Mandates  ***;
. logit cwinit  lameduckone lameducktwo hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -692.92899  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -664.54356  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -664.28914  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -664.28907  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     217.86
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -664.28907                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1683

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 lameduckone |  -.7961138    .245948    -3.24   0.001    -1.278163   -.3140645
 lameducktwo |  -.2228735   .4012542    -0.56   0.579    -1.009317    .5635702
     hawkish |   .2706972   .0952193     2.84   0.004     .0840708    .4573235
     rivalry |   1.418347   .1685046     8.42   0.000     1.088084     1.74861
     numbord |   .0804653   .0308679     2.61   0.009     .0199654    .1409653
  parliament |  -.2767711   .1719657    -1.61   0.108    -.6138177    .0602755
      gender |   .5883465   .2992406     1.97   0.049     .0018457    1.174847
       peace |  -.2305093   .0542761    -4.25   0.000    -.3368886   -.1241301
      peace2 |   .0108078   .0043648     2.48   0.013     .0022528    .0193627
      peace3 |  -.0001378   .0000872    -1.58   0.114    -.0003088    .0000331
       _cons |  -2.270392   .2226961   -10.20   0.000    -2.706869   -1.833916
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Mandates/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Mandates/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit  lameduckone lameducktwo hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -694.16134  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -666.60414  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -666.37801  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -666.37796  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     216.22
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -666.37796                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1657

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 lameduckone |  -.8608187   .2454691    -3.51   0.000    -1.341929   -.3797082
 lameducktwo |  -.0728951   .3928666    -0.19   0.853    -.8428994    .6971092
    hawkish2 |   .2034061   .0993149     2.05   0.041     .0087525    .3980597
     rivalry |   1.440303   .1693048     8.51   0.000     1.108471    1.772134
     numbord |   .0849174   .0308136     2.76   0.006     .0245239     .145311
  parliament |  -.2563896   .1739212    -1.47   0.140     -.597269    .0844898
      gender |   .5343958    .295684     1.81   0.071    -.0451342    1.113926
       peace |  -.2349007   .0540553    -4.35   0.000    -.3408471   -.1289543
      peace2 |    .011079    .004354     2.54   0.011     .0025453    .0196127
      peace3 |  -.0001412   .0000869    -1.62   0.104    -.0003116    .0000292
       _cons |  -2.177655   .2153424   -10.11   0.000    -2.599718   -1.755592
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Mandates/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Mandates/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit  lameduckone lameducktwo milservice  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -684.02639  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.32066  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.05601  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.05595  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     219.17
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -656.05595                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1703

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 lameduckone |   -.847776   .2516911    -3.37   0.001    -1.341081   -.3544705
 lameducktwo |  -.1677307   .3961205    -0.42   0.672    -.9441126    .6086512
  milservice |    .364597   .1726191     2.11   0.035     .0262698    .7029243
     rivalry |    1.47967   .1711044     8.65   0.000     1.144312    1.815029
     numbord |   .0889881   .0305223     2.92   0.004     .0291655    .1488107
  parliament |  -.2386484   .1740581    -1.37   0.170    -.5797961    .1024992
      gender |    .499175   .3028767     1.65   0.099    -.0944524    1.092802
       peace |  -.2329555   .0546086    -4.27   0.000    -.3399864   -.1259246
      peace2 |   .0109505   .0043647     2.51   0.012     .0023958    .0195052
      peace3 |  -.0001397    .000087    -1.60   0.109    -.0003102    .0000309
       _cons |  -2.172013   .2173598    -9.99   0.000     -2.59803   -1.745995
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Mandates/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Mandates/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Time Trend  ***;
. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 year  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -686.33962  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.99274  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.72681  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.72668  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.72668  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     247.01
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -656.72668                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1778

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7277909   .2237348    -3.25   0.001    -1.166303   -.2892787
     hawkish |    .321751   .0938699     3.43   0.001     .1377694    .5057326
     rivalry |   1.465463   .1621092     9.04   0.000     1.147734    1.783191
     numbord |   .0559084   .0312934     1.79   0.074    -.0054255    .1172424
  parliament |  -.2364035   .1756786    -1.35   0.178    -.5807273    .1079203
      gender |   .6347217   .3012664     2.11   0.035     .0442505    1.225193
       peace |  -.2434136   .0538325    -4.52   0.000    -.3489235   -.1379038
      peace2 |   .0118488   .0043876     2.70   0.007     .0032491    .0204484
      peace3 |  -.0001642   .0000888    -1.85   0.064    -.0003382    9.76e-06
        year |   .0260234   .0059975     4.34   0.000     .0142685    .0377784
       _cons |  -53.88322   11.89009    -4.53   0.000    -77.18737   -30.57907
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 year  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -687.62572  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -659.30314  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -659.06752  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -659.06741  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -659.06741  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     243.54
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -659.06741                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1748

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7630446   .2248851    -3.39   0.001    -1.203811   -.3222779
    hawkish2 |    .271111   .0971992     2.79   0.005      .080604     .461618
     rivalry |    1.49628   .1622781     9.22   0.000      1.17822    1.814339
     numbord |   .0579591   .0313856     1.85   0.065    -.0035556    .1194738
  parliament |  -.2074922   .1786726    -1.16   0.246     -.557684    .1426996
      gender |   .5792028   .2971067     1.95   0.051    -.0031155    1.161521
       peace |  -.2523512   .0537485    -4.70   0.000    -.3576964   -.1470061
      peace2 |   .0123984   .0043834     2.83   0.005     .0038071    .0209897
      peace3 |  -.0001719   .0000885    -1.94   0.052    -.0003454    1.56e-06
        year |   .0272018   .0060602     4.49   0.000      .015324    .0390797
       _cons |  -56.11112   12.01854    -4.67   0.000    -79.66702   -32.55522
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck milservice  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 year  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -676.00926  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -647.06927  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -646.79502  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -646.79489  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -646.79489  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     249.40
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -646.79489                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1820

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7305674   .2288411    -3.19   0.001    -1.179088   -.2820471
  milservice |   .5879975   .1754036     3.35   0.001     .2442129    .9317822
     rivalry |   1.553264   .1642946     9.45   0.000     1.231252    1.875276
     numbord |   .0603238   .0310824     1.94   0.052    -.0005965    .1212442
  parliament |  -.1575269   .1792751    -0.88   0.380    -.5088998    .1938459
      gender |   .5774014     .30614     1.89   0.059    -.0226219    1.177425
       peace |  -.2468272   .0541992    -4.55   0.000    -.3530556   -.1405989
      peace2 |   .0121388   .0043947     2.76   0.006     .0035253    .0207524
      peace3 |    -.00017   .0000888    -1.91   0.056    -.0003441    4.13e-06
        year |   .0297961   .0062503     4.77   0.000     .0175457    .0420464
       _cons |  -61.31107   12.40212    -4.94   0.000    -85.61879   -37.00335
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Year Fixed Effects  ***;
. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(year);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -562.88875  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -561.7862  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -561.77949  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -561.77949  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     248.64
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -561.77949                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1995

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on year)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6804794   .2397978    -2.84   0.005    -1.150474   -.2104844
     hawkish |   .3257182   .1025402     3.18   0.001     .1247431    .5266933
     rivalry |   1.456156   .2277673     6.39   0.000     1.009741    1.902572
     numbord |   .0606295    .033499     1.81   0.070    -.0050273    .1262863
  parliament |  -.1787643   .1698902    -1.05   0.293     -.511743    .1542143
      gender |   .6320384   .3171378     1.99   0.046     .0104598    1.253617
       peace |  -.2660388   .0576706    -4.61   0.000    -.3790711   -.1530066
      peace2 |   .0130872   .0038592     3.39   0.001     .0055233    .0206511
      peace3 |  -.0001833   .0000718    -2.55   0.011     -.000324   -.0000426
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Year/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Year/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(year);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -565.4502  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -564.16474  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -564.1563  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -564.1563  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     277.72
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood =  -564.1563                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1961

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on year)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7169604   .2578873    -2.78   0.005     -1.22241   -.2115107
    hawkish2 |    .275307   .1059891     2.60   0.009     .0675723    .4830418
     rivalry |   1.494555   .2335221     6.40   0.000      1.03686     1.95225
     numbord |   .0620351   .0328062     1.89   0.059    -.0022639    .1263341
  parliament |  -.1530815   .1779438    -0.86   0.390     -.501845     .195682
      gender |     .57728   .3049596     1.89   0.058    -.0204298     1.17499
       peace |  -.2731365   .0569565    -4.80   0.000    -.3847693   -.1615038
      peace2 |   .0135269   .0038029     3.56   0.000     .0060733    .0209805
      peace3 |  -.0001893    .000071    -2.67   0.008    -.0003284   -.0000502
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Year/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Year/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck milservice  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(year);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.42584  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -552.59769  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -552.58459  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -552.58458  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(9)    =     274.96
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -552.58458                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2037

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on year)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6689527   .2516988    -2.66   0.008    -1.162273   -.1756322
  milservice |   .6362868   .2016405     3.16   0.002     .2410787    1.031495
     rivalry |   1.556693   .2258324     6.89   0.000     1.114069    1.999316
     numbord |   .0635771   .0301696     2.11   0.035     .0044457    .1227085
  parliament |  -.0985569   .1799602    -0.55   0.584    -.4512724    .2541585
      gender |   .6014791    .328215     1.83   0.067    -.0418104    1.244769
       peace |  -.2652576   .0555854    -4.77   0.000    -.3742031   -.1563122
      peace2 |   .0131962   .0038131     3.46   0.001     .0057227    .0206697
      peace3 |  -.0001872   .0000731    -2.56   0.010    -.0003305   -.0000439
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Year/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Year/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Decade Fixed Effects  ***;
. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(decade);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.39813  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.59412  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.58884  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.58884  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(4)    =          .
                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -637.58884                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1752

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on decade)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |   -.731297   .2008905    -3.64   0.000    -1.125035   -.3375587
     hawkish |     .32744   .0921576     3.55   0.000     .1468143    .5080656
     rivalry |   1.451949   .3280697     4.43   0.000     .8089444    2.094954
     numbord |   .0584008   .0378622     1.54   0.123    -.0158078    .1326094
  parliament |  -.2162829   .1410771    -1.53   0.125    -.4927889    .0602232
      gender |   .6335566   .1625574     3.90   0.000       .31495    .9521633
       peace |  -.2402221   .0402717    -5.97   0.000    -.3191532    -.161291
      peace2 |   .0115206   .0025255     4.56   0.000     .0065707    .0164705
      peace3 |  -.0001579   .0000387    -4.08   0.000    -.0002338    -.000082
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Decade/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Decade/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(decade);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -641.14411  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.16126  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.15525  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.15525  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(4)    =          .
                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -640.15525                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1718

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on decade)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7717608   .2347077    -3.29   0.001    -1.231779   -.3117422
    hawkish2 |   .2703317   .0862514     3.13   0.002      .101282    .4393813
     rivalry |    1.48677   .3229491     4.60   0.000      .853801    2.119738
     numbord |   .0591875   .0351296     1.68   0.092    -.0096652    .1280401
  parliament |  -.1911729   .1450187    -1.32   0.187    -.4754043    .0930585
      gender |   .5784086   .2180692     2.65   0.008     .1510008    1.005816
       peace |   -.247883   .0387698    -6.39   0.000    -.3238704   -.1718957
      peace2 |   .0120055   .0024776     4.85   0.000     .0071496    .0168614
      peace3 |  -.0001649   .0000378    -4.36   0.000     -.000239   -.0000908
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Decade/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Decade/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck milservice  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(decade);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -628.95258  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -627.44556  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -627.43651  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -627.4365  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(4)    =          .
                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .
Log pseudolikelihood =  -627.4365                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1793

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on decade)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7376048    .188712    -3.91   0.000    -1.107474   -.3677362
  milservice |   .6075044   .1742734     3.49   0.000     .2659348    .9490741
     rivalry |   1.562764   .3121751     5.01   0.000     .9509124    2.174616
     numbord |   .0616301   .0330174     1.87   0.062    -.0030827     .126343
  parliament |  -.1371722   .1459524    -0.94   0.347    -.4232337    .1488893
      gender |   .5856399   .2238688     2.62   0.009     .1468651    1.024415
       peace |  -.2402908   .0386282    -6.22   0.000    -.3160007   -.1645809
      peace2 |   .0117734   .0026219     4.49   0.000     .0066346    .0169123
      peace3 |  -.0001651   .0000414    -3.98   0.000    -.0002463   -.0000839
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Decade/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Decade/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Regional Fixed Effects  ***;
. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  group(region);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -646.31765  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -643.86304  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -643.85914  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -643.85914  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     181.33
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -643.85914                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1234

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -1.188262    .283974    -4.18   0.000    -1.744841   -.6316834
     hawkish |    .255321   .0959434     2.66   0.008     .0672755    .4433665
     rivalry |   1.300776   .1880523     6.92   0.000        .9322    1.669351
     numbord |   .0913472    .034235     2.67   0.008     .0242479    .1584466
  parliament |  -.3417862    .220023    -1.55   0.120    -.7730234     .089451
      gender |   .6500045   .3017653     2.15   0.031     .0585554    1.241454
       peace |  -.2327687   .0524347    -4.44   0.000    -.3355388   -.1299986
      peace2 |   .0110764   .0041926     2.64   0.008     .0028591    .0192937
      peace3 |  -.0001458   .0000827    -1.76   0.078    -.0003079    .0000163
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Region/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Unconditional/Region/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish2 rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  group(region);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -649.48008  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -646.74116  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -646.73707  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -646.73707  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     175.57
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -646.73707                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1195

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -1.263434   .2858869    -4.42   0.000    -1.823762   -.7031056
    hawkish2 |   .1270658   .1115201     1.14   0.255    -.0915096    .3456412
     rivalry |   1.321676   .1875719     7.05   0.000     .9540419     1.68931
     numbord |   .0953485   .0344163     2.77   0.006     .0278938    .1628032
  parliament |  -.3593569   .2269518    -1.58   0.113    -.8041743    .0854605
      gender |   .5575302   .2986253     1.87   0.062    -.0277647    1.142825
       peace |  -.2384632   .0521928    -4.57   0.000    -.3407591   -.1361673
      peace2 |   .0114076   .0041763     2.73   0.006     .0032222     .019593
      peace3 |  -.0001501   .0000824    -1.82   0.069    -.0003117    .0000115
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Region/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Unconditional/Region/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck milservice rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  group(region);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -639.30556  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -636.74493  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -636.74066  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -636.74066  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     178.89
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -636.74066                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1232

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |    -1.2631   .3010544    -4.20   0.000    -1.853155   -.6730437
  milservice |   .2343274   .1997304     1.17   0.241     -.157137    .6257918
     rivalry |   1.353856   .1891327     7.16   0.000     .9831629    1.724549
     numbord |   .0980913   .0343071     2.86   0.004     .0308505    .1653321
  parliament |  -.3483479   .2288788    -1.52   0.128    -.7969421    .1002462
      gender |   .5211343   .3036972     1.72   0.086    -.0741013     1.11637
       peace |  -.2341481   .0525363    -4.46   0.000    -.3371173   -.1311789
      peace2 |   .0111089   .0041883     2.65   0.008     .0028999    .0193178
      peace3 |  -.0001452   .0000826    -1.76   0.079    -.0003071    .0000167
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b9, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Region/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/Region/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Variation in Military Service  ***;
. logit cwinit  lameduck  combat milnoncombat  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.05715  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -684.01353  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.04905  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.79402  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.79396  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2175
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     212.20
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -656.79396                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1687

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6471166   .2281663    -2.84   0.005    -1.094314   -.1999189
      combat |   .3404072   .1989343     1.71   0.087    -.0494968    .7303112
milnoncombat |   .6191964   .2644478     2.34   0.019     .1008883    1.137504
     rivalry |   1.463477   .1685212     8.68   0.000     1.133181    1.793772
     numbord |   .0857891   .0304985     2.81   0.005     .0260131    .1455651
  parliament |  -.2006561   .1772732    -1.13   0.258    -.5481053    .1467931
      gender |   .4993702   .3007893     1.66   0.097    -.0901661    1.088906
       peace |  -.2401469   .0538742    -4.46   0.000    -.3457383   -.1345554
      peace2 |   .0113428    .004365     2.60   0.009     .0027876     .019898
      peace3 |  -.0001459   .0000877    -1.66   0.096    -.0003177    .0000259
       _cons |   -2.18242   .2183971    -9.99   0.000    -2.610471    -1.75437
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates store combatmodel;

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/ServiceType/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/ServiceType/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit  lameduck militarycareer  milnoncareer  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -684.86961  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =    -658.17  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.92648  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.92642  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     210.74
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -657.92642                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1679

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
        cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      lameduck |  -.6461491   .2291984    -2.82   0.005     -1.09537   -.1969284
militarycareer |   .3271381   .3512227     0.93   0.352    -.3612458    1.015522
  milnoncareer |   .4609526   .1826435     2.52   0.012     .1029778    .8189273
       rivalry |   1.461225   .1688414     8.65   0.000     1.130302    1.792148
       numbord |   .0847569   .0306288     2.77   0.006     .0247255    .1447883
    parliament |  -.1934044   .1758732    -1.10   0.271    -.5381095    .1513007
        gender |   .5012122   .3008759     1.67   0.096    -.0884937    1.090918
         peace |  -.2435166   .0538419    -4.52   0.000    -.3490448   -.1379884
        peace2 |   .0115122   .0043516     2.65   0.008     .0029832    .0200412
        peace3 |  -.0001478   .0000873    -1.69   0.090    -.0003189    .0000233
         _cons |  -2.181583   .2183365    -9.99   0.000    -2.609514   -1.753651
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/MilitaryCareer/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Unconditional/MilitaryCareer/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. ** Primary Conditional Analyses **;
. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish lameduck_hawkish rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -693.49981  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -665.83676  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -665.59617  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -665.5961  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -665.5961  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     212.06
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood =  -665.5961                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1667

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
          cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduck |  -.7462215   .2855911    -2.61   0.009     -1.30597   -.1864733
         hawkish |   .2672887   .1012074     2.64   0.008     .0689257    .4656516
lameduck_hawkish |   .1493534   .2309511     0.65   0.518    -.3033024    .6020092
         rivalry |   1.400995   .1666823     8.41   0.000     1.074304    1.727686
         numbord |   .0772737   .0307354     2.51   0.012     .0170333     .137514
      parliament |  -.2597352   .1734212    -1.50   0.134    -.5996344    .0801641
          gender |   .5815004   .2973414     1.96   0.051    -.0012781    1.164279
           peace |  -.2376362   .0536545    -4.43   0.000    -.3427971   -.1324752
          peace2 |   .0111272    .004348     2.56   0.010     .0026054    .0196491
          peace3 |  -.0001418    .000087    -1.63   0.103    -.0003124    .0000288
           _cons |  -2.247876   .2238215   -10.04   0.000    -2.686558   -1.809194
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Primary/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Primary/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish2 lameduck_hawkish2 rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -695.40694  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -668.78175  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -668.56434  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -668.56428  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     207.30
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -668.56428                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1629

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |               Robust
           cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduck |  -.5900249    .250061    -2.36   0.018    -1.080136   -.0999144
         hawkish2 |   .2548426      .1104     2.31   0.021     .0384626    .4712227
lameduck_hawkish2 |  -.1780137   .2614794    -0.68   0.496     -.690504    .3344766
          rivalry |   1.419517   .1665139     8.52   0.000     1.093156    1.745878
          numbord |   .0788689   .0309407     2.55   0.011     .0182262    .1395116
       parliament |  -.2192005   .1757626    -1.25   0.212    -.5636888    .1252878
           gender |   .5362012   .2932618     1.83   0.067    -.0385814    1.110984
            peace |  -.2477345     .05363    -4.62   0.000    -.3528474   -.1426217
           peace2 |   .0117838   .0043612     2.70   0.007      .003236    .0203316
           peace3 |  -.0001517   .0000875    -1.73   0.083    -.0003231    .0000197
            _cons |  -2.173989   .2157112   -10.08   0.000    -2.596775   -1.751203
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Primary/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Primary/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck milservice lameduck_mil rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -684.9806  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -658.04191  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.79194  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.79187  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     211.85
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -657.79187                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1681

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7131587   .2439406    -2.92   0.003    -1.191273    -.235044
  milservice |   .3806849   .1815822     2.10   0.036     .0247904    .7365794
lameduck_mil |   .3182294   .4923577     0.65   0.518     -.646774    1.283233
     rivalry |   1.461041   .1688582     8.65   0.000     1.130085    1.791997
     numbord |   .0855556   .0305604     2.80   0.005     .0256582    .1454529
  parliament |  -.2175059   .1755526    -1.24   0.215    -.5615827    .1265709
      gender |   .4958907   .3014216     1.65   0.100    -.0948848    1.086666
       peace |  -.2398676   .0544436    -4.41   0.000    -.3465751   -.1331602
      peace2 |   .0112315   .0043898     2.56   0.011     .0026277    .0198352
      peace3 |  -.0001427   .0000876    -1.63   0.103    -.0003145     .000029
       _cons |  -2.157345    .216913    -9.95   0.000    -2.582487   -1.732203
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b11, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Primary/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Primary/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Additional Control Variables  ***;
. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish lameduck_hawkish   rivalry numbord parliament gender civwar  rgdppc gdpgrowthpct majpow mm 
> peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -790.1107  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -676.36689  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.43949  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.57086  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.56866  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.56866  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2208
                                                  Wald chi2(15)   =     262.13
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -632.56866                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1994

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
          cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduck |  -.5324706   .3067951    -1.74   0.083    -1.133778    .0688367
         hawkish |   .1380898    .108793     1.27   0.204    -.0751406    .3513202
lameduck_hawkish |   .0608838   .2369566     0.26   0.797    -.4035426    .5253102
         rivalry |   1.361643   .2049296     6.64   0.000     .9599881    1.763297
         numbord |   .1220888   .0321171     3.80   0.000     .0591405    .1850371
      parliament |  -.3411161    .197151    -1.73   0.084    -.7275249    .0452927
          gender |    .576863   .3200491     1.80   0.071    -.0504216    1.204148
          civwar |   .3184871   .2183471     1.46   0.145    -.1094654    .7464396
          rgdppc |   .0000459     .00001     4.58   0.000     .0000263    .0000655
    gdpgrowthpct |  -.0025009   .0107647    -0.23   0.816    -.0235993    .0185976
          majpow |   .4339902   .2592299     1.67   0.094     -.074091    .9420714
              mm |  -.2162799   .5643363    -0.38   0.702    -1.322359    .8897989
           peace |  -.2385873   .0550473    -4.33   0.000    -.3464781   -.1306965
          peace2 |    .011807   .0044583     2.65   0.008      .003069    .0205451
          peace3 |  -.0001653   .0000896    -1.85   0.065    -.0003409    .0000102
           _cons |  -2.994533   .2998019    -9.99   0.000    -3.582134   -2.406932
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b16, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta", repla
> ce;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish2 lameduck_hawkish2   rivalry numbord parliament gender civwar  rgdppc gdpgrowthpct majpow m
> m peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -790.1107  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -677.14603  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -634.29412  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.45789  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.45582  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.45582  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2208
                                                  Wald chi2(15)   =     259.94
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -633.45582                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1983

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |               Robust
           cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduck |  -.4824294   .2797083    -1.72   0.085    -1.030648    .0657887
         hawkish2 |   .0885906   .1258131     0.70   0.481    -.1579985    .3351798
lameduck_hawkish2 |  -.0334675   .3058477    -0.11   0.913     -.632918     .565983
          rivalry |   1.357369   .2056824     6.60   0.000     .9542392    1.760499
          numbord |   .1235205   .0320862     3.85   0.000     .0606327    .1864082
       parliament |  -.3340027    .203306    -1.64   0.100    -.7324751    .0644697
           gender |   .5269627   .3154714     1.67   0.095    -.0913498    1.145275
           civwar |   .3445957   .2240197     1.54   0.124    -.0944748    .7836661
           rgdppc |   .0000457     .00001     4.55   0.000      .000026    .0000654
     gdpgrowthpct |  -.0020224   .0108149    -0.19   0.852    -.0232191    .0191743
           majpow |   .4966524   .2523849     1.97   0.049      .001987    .9913177
               mm |  -.2257363   .5757602    -0.39   0.695    -1.354206     .902733
            peace |  -.2434218   .0553251    -4.40   0.000     -.351857   -.1349866
           peace2 |   .0121298   .0044919     2.70   0.007     .0033258    .0209337
           peace3 |  -.0001704   .0000903    -1.89   0.059    -.0003474    6.57e-06
            _cons |  -2.941745   .2905791   -10.12   0.000    -3.511269    -2.37222
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b16, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta", rep
> lace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck milservice lameduck_mil   rivalry numbord parliament gender civwar  rgdppc gdpgrowthpct majpow mm p
> eace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -782.38606  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -667.28944  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =   -625.329  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.38719  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.38513  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.38513  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2146
                                                  Wald chi2(15)   =     260.60
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -624.38513                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6095829   .2726468    -2.24   0.025    -1.143961    -.075205
  milservice |   -.079431    .215254    -0.37   0.712    -.5013212    .3424591
lameduck_mil |    .128733   .5684915     0.23   0.821    -.9854899    1.242956
     rivalry |     1.3763   .2082826     6.61   0.000     .9680739    1.784526
     numbord |   .1282373   .0320711     4.00   0.000     .0653791    .1910955
  parliament |  -.3828787   .2061843    -1.86   0.063    -.7869925    .0212352
      gender |   .4354013   .3235838     1.35   0.178    -.1988113    1.069614
      civwar |   .3655797   .2206587     1.66   0.098    -.0669033    .7980628
      rgdppc |   .0000459   .0000101     4.57   0.000     .0000262    .0000657
gdpgrowthpct |   .0001553   .0115408     0.01   0.989    -.0224642    .0227747
      majpow |   .5357685   .2669335     2.01   0.045     .0125883    1.058949
          mm |  -.1903152   .5672417    -0.34   0.737    -1.302089    .9214582
       peace |  -.2440949   .0559552    -4.36   0.000    -.3537651   -.1344246
      peace2 |   .0121568   .0045017     2.70   0.007     .0033337    .0209799
      peace3 |   -.000171   .0000902    -1.90   0.058    -.0003477    5.67e-06
       _cons |  -2.839937   .2889378    -9.83   0.000    -3.406245    -2.27363
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b16, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/AdditionalControls/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Conflict Severity  ***;
. ologit wardv2 lameduck hawkish lameduck_hawkish   rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -950.18518  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -846.43727  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -812.80263  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -812.62501  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -812.62493  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     224.35
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -812.62493                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1448

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
          wardv2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduck |  -.7225656   .2885886    -2.50   0.012    -1.288189   -.1569424
         hawkish |    .269555   .0991843     2.72   0.007     .0751573    .4639527
lameduck_hawkish |   .1146098   .2195032     0.52   0.602    -.3156085    .5448281
         rivalry |   1.442339   .1651827     8.73   0.000     1.118587    1.766091
         numbord |   .0793836   .0293234     2.71   0.007     .0219109    .1368564
      parliament |  -.2195112   .1738611    -1.26   0.207    -.5602727    .1212503
          gender |   .5302682   .2914304     1.82   0.069     -.040925    1.101461
           peace |   -.238834   .0531897    -4.49   0.000    -.3430838   -.1345842
          peace2 |   .0111263   .0043753     2.54   0.011     .0025509    .0197017
          peace3 |  -.0001405   .0000884    -1.59   0.112    -.0003138    .0000329
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
           /cut1 |   2.285372   .2244538                      1.845451    2.725293
           /cut2 |   3.813371   .2405294                      3.341942      4.2848
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b12, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Severity/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Severity/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. ologit wardv2 lameduck hawkish2 lameduck_hawkish2   rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -950.18518  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -847.44801  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -815.01534  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.84868  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -814.84861  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     216.64
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -814.84861                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1424

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |               Robust
           wardv2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduck |  -.5491881   .2578919    -2.13   0.033    -1.054647   -.0437294
         hawkish2 |    .288935   .1181577     2.45   0.014     .0573501    .5205199
lameduck_hawkish2 |  -.2551259   .2621129    -0.97   0.330    -.7688578    .2586059
          rivalry |   1.462437   .1650238     8.86   0.000     1.138997    1.785878
          numbord |   .0806769   .0295635     2.73   0.006     .0227335    .1386202
       parliament |  -.1678117   .1794574    -0.94   0.350    -.5195416    .1839183
           gender |   .4894429   .2863512     1.71   0.087    -.0717951    1.050681
            peace |  -.2508991   .0532973    -4.71   0.000    -.3553599   -.1464383
           peace2 |   .0119182   .0044014     2.71   0.007     .0032917    .0205448
           peace3 |  -.0001525   .0000892    -1.71   0.087    -.0003273    .0000222
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            /cut1 |   2.228028   .2180993                      1.800561    2.655494
            /cut2 |   3.749919   .2324025                      3.294419     4.20542
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b12, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Severity/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Severity/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. ologit wardv2 lameduck milservice lameduck_mil   rivalry numbord parliament gender  peace peace2 peace3   ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -942.15851  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -837.51062  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.55032  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.36714  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -804.36707  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     223.19
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -804.36707                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1463

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      wardv2 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6948198   .2478758    -2.80   0.005    -1.180647   -.2089922
  milservice |   .4106282   .1857208     2.21   0.027     .0466222    .7746342
lameduck_mil |   .2040734   .4690087     0.44   0.663    -.7151668    1.123314
     rivalry |   1.506961   .1673762     9.00   0.000      1.17891    1.835012
     numbord |   .0871417   .0290717     3.00   0.003     .0301623    .1441212
  parliament |  -.1729389   .1767323    -0.98   0.328    -.5193279    .1734502
      gender |   .4386278   .2930408     1.50   0.134    -.1357216    1.012977
       peace |  -.2426697   .0540518    -4.49   0.000    -.3486093   -.1367301
      peace2 |    .011346   .0044246     2.56   0.010     .0026739    .0200182
      peace3 |  -.0001433   .0000893    -1.61   0.108    -.0003183    .0000316
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |    2.19981   .2160049                      1.776449    2.623172
       /cut2 |   3.733595   .2305667                      3.281692    4.185497
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b12, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Severity/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Severity/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Single vs. Multiple Mandates  ***;
. logit cwinit  lameduckone hawkish lameduckone_hawkish lameducktwo lameducktwo_hawkish rivalry numbord parliament gender p
> eace peace2 peace3 ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -692.94987  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -664.41159  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -664.14323  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -664.14316  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -664.14316  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(12)   =     218.65
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -664.14316                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1685

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
             cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduckone |  -.8709795   .3019544    -2.88   0.004    -1.462799   -.2791598
            hawkish |   .2607582   .1005606     2.59   0.010     .0636631    .4578534
lameduckone_hawkish |   .1379905   .3231265     0.43   0.669    -.4953258    .7713067
        lameducktwo |   -.095866   .7963732    -0.12   0.904    -1.656729    1.464997
lameducktwo_hawkish |  -.0869855   .4575628    -0.19   0.849    -.9837922    .8098212
            rivalry |   1.419623   .1683506     8.43   0.000     1.089661    1.749584
            numbord |   .0796967   .0308011     2.59   0.010     .0193276    .1400659
         parliament |  -.2786816   .1714358    -1.63   0.104    -.6146896    .0573263
             gender |   .5855191   .2989987     1.96   0.050    -.0005076    1.171546
              peace |  -.2316985   .0541492    -4.28   0.000     -.337829    -.125568
             peace2 |   .0108633   .0043554     2.49   0.013     .0023267    .0193998
             peace3 |  -.0001385   .0000869    -1.59   0.111    -.0003089    .0000319
              _cons |  -2.256344   .2251204   -10.02   0.000    -2.697572   -1.815116
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b13, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit  lameduckone hawkish2 lameduckone_hawkish2 lameducktwo lameducktwo_hawkish2 rivalry numbord parliament gende
> r peace peace2 peace3 ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -694.34007  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -666.40996  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -666.17194  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -666.17189  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(12)   =     217.88
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -666.17189                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1659

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     |               Robust
              cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduckone |  -.7903691   .2705605    -2.92   0.003    -1.320658   -.2600802
            hawkish2 |   .2353544   .1082773     2.17   0.030     .0231348     .447574
lameduckone_hawkish2 |  -.1702495   .3270496    -0.52   0.603    -.8112549    .4707559
         lameducktwo |   .0138809    .497216     0.03   0.978    -.9606446    .9884064
lameducktwo_hawkish2 |  -.1494109   .4859358    -0.31   0.758    -1.101828    .8030058
             rivalry |   1.442833   .1692163     8.53   0.000     1.111175    1.774491
             numbord |   .0843183   .0307942     2.74   0.006     .0239628    .1446737
          parliament |  -.2448798    .173854    -1.41   0.159    -.5856274    .0958677
              gender |   .5434056   .2956633     1.84   0.066    -.0360837    1.122895
               peace |  -.2356916   .0540054    -4.36   0.000    -.3415403   -.1298429
              peace2 |   .0111733   .0043609     2.56   0.010     .0026261    .0197205
              peace3 |  -.0001432   .0000872    -1.64   0.101    -.0003141    .0000277
               _cons |  -2.199239   .2183184   -10.07   0.000    -2.627135   -1.771342
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b13, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit  lameduckone milservice lameduckone_mil lameducktwo lameducktwo_mil rivalry numbord parliament gender peace 
> peace2 peace3 ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -684.1751  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.31957  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -656.0378  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.03773  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(12)   =     221.91
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -656.03773                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1703

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
         cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduckone |  -.8576203   .2558465    -3.35   0.001     -1.35907   -.3561703
     milservice |   .3581338   .1806736     1.98   0.047     .0040201    .7122474
lameduckone_mil |   .1612974   .9314518     0.17   0.863    -1.664315    1.986909
    lameducktwo |  -.1594889   .5404307    -0.30   0.768    -1.218714    .8997359
lameducktwo_mil |  -.0187057   .7313412    -0.03   0.980    -1.452108    1.414697
        rivalry |   1.479918   .1708605     8.66   0.000     1.145038    1.814799
        numbord |   .0888391   .0305459     2.91   0.004     .0289703    .1487079
     parliament |  -.2402108   .1735004    -1.38   0.166    -.5802654    .0998438
         gender |   .4979804   .3033339     1.64   0.101    -.0965432    1.092504
          peace |  -.2328006   .0547293    -4.25   0.000    -.3400681    -.125533
         peace2 |   .0109233   .0043943     2.49   0.013     .0023106     .019536
         peace3 |   -.000139   .0000877    -1.59   0.113    -.0003108    .0000328
          _cons |  -2.168676   .2184993    -9.93   0.000    -2.596927   -1.740425
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b13, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Mandates/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Time Trend  ***;
. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish lameduck_hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 year  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -686.44541  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.88543  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.62028  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.62016  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.62016  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(11)   =     249.15
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -656.62016                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1779

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
          cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduck |  -.8056307   .2850959    -2.83   0.005    -1.364408    -.246853
         hawkish |   .2978239   .1036533     2.87   0.004     .0946672    .5009806
lameduck_hawkish |   .1019359    .231886     0.44   0.660    -.3525523    .5564241
         rivalry |    1.46674   .1622789     9.04   0.000     1.148679    1.784801
         numbord |   .0567049    .031159     1.82   0.069    -.0043656    .1177754
      parliament |  -.2427208   .1748951    -1.39   0.165     -.585509    .1000673
          gender |    .627598   .3007447     2.09   0.037     .0381494    1.217047
           peace |  -.2427475    .053897    -4.50   0.000    -.3483838   -.1371113
          peace2 |    .011788   .0043859     2.69   0.007     .0031918    .0203842
          peace3 |   -.000163   .0000885    -1.84   0.066    -.0003365    .0000105
            year |   .0258864   .0060142     4.30   0.000     .0140988    .0376739
           _cons |  -53.59083   11.92531    -4.49   0.000    -76.96401   -30.21764
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b12, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck hawkish2 lameduck_hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 year  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -798.71178  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -687.64723  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -658.92208  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -658.67371  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -658.6736  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -658.6736  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(11)   =     243.22
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood =  -658.6736                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1753

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |               Robust
           cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduck |  -.6618621   .2497716    -2.65   0.008    -1.151405   -.1723187
         hawkish2 |   .3210165   .1113568     2.88   0.004     .1027613    .5392718
lameduck_hawkish2 |  -.2125342   .2446308    -0.87   0.385    -.6920018    .2669334
          rivalry |   1.496198   .1622142     9.22   0.000     1.178264    1.814132
          numbord |   .0569852   .0313399     1.82   0.069    -.0044399    .1184103
       parliament |  -.1868729    .179562    -1.04   0.298    -.5388079    .1650622
           gender |   .5933736   .2972805     2.00   0.046     .0107145    1.176033
            peace |  -.2543459   .0540381    -4.71   0.000    -.3602587   -.1484331
           peace2 |   .0126047   .0044156     2.85   0.004     .0039504     .021259
           peace3 |  -.0001762   .0000893    -1.97   0.048    -.0003512   -1.18e-06
             year |   .0274427   .0061006     4.50   0.000     .0154857    .0393997
            _cons |  -56.62163   12.10326    -4.68   0.000    -80.34358   -32.89968
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b12, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit lameduck milservice lameduck_mil  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 year  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -676.10478  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -647.01824  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -646.74275  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -646.74262  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -646.74262  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(11)   =     250.07
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -646.74262                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1820

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7597903   .2451977    -3.10   0.002    -1.240369   -.2792116
  milservice |   .5612171   .1899689     2.95   0.003     .1888849    .9335494
lameduck_mil |   .1627383   .4906855     0.33   0.740    -.7989876    1.124464
     rivalry |   1.553077   .1643622     9.45   0.000     1.230933    1.875221
     numbord |   .0609533   .0310248     1.96   0.049     .0001457    .1217609
  parliament |   -.165076   .1790431    -0.92   0.357    -.5159941    .1858422
      gender |   .5735192   .3067254     1.87   0.062    -.0276515     1.17469
       peace |  -.2451499   .0547506    -4.48   0.000    -.3524592   -.1378407
      peace2 |   .0120063   .0044372     2.71   0.007     .0033096     .020703
      peace3 |  -.0001676   .0000895    -1.87   0.061    -.0003429    7.77e-06
        year |   .0296574   .0062629     4.74   0.000     .0173823    .0419326
       _cons |  -61.02758   12.42789    -4.91   0.000     -85.3858   -36.66936
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b12, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/TimeTrend/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Year Fixed Effects  ***;
. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish lameduck_hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(y
> ear);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -562.82459  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -561.69098  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =   -561.684  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =   -561.684  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     252.03
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood =   -561.684                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1996

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on year)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
          cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduck |  -.7546789   .3103464    -2.43   0.015    -1.362947   -.1464111
         hawkish |   .3023742   .1171341     2.58   0.010     .0727956    .5319528
lameduck_hawkish |   .0974403   .2475867     0.39   0.694    -.3878208    .5827013
         rivalry |   1.457237   .2294161     6.35   0.000      1.00759    1.906884
         numbord |   .0614235   .0329201     1.87   0.062    -.0030987    .1259457
      parliament |  -.1853008   .1665686    -1.11   0.266    -.5117691    .1411676
          gender |   .6259704   .3245361     1.93   0.054    -.0101086    1.262049
           peace |  -.2656849    .057535    -4.62   0.000    -.3784515   -.1529184
          peace2 |   .0130538   .0038537     3.39   0.001     .0055007    .0206068
          peace3 |  -.0001827   .0000716    -2.55   0.011    -.0003231   -.0000423
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Year/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Year/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish2 lameduck_hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group
> (year);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -565.16813  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -563.86953  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -563.86086  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -563.86085  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     285.30
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -563.86085                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1965

                                        (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on year)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |               Robust
           cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduck |  -.6316638   .2743542    -2.30   0.021    -1.169388   -.0939394
         hawkish2 |   .3181732   .1352854     2.35   0.019     .0530186    .5833277
lameduck_hawkish2 |  -.1883808   .2948266    -0.64   0.523    -.7662304    .3894687
          rivalry |   1.496818   .2306436     6.49   0.000     1.044765    1.948872
          numbord |    .061138   .0326439     1.87   0.061    -.0028429    .1251189
       parliament |  -.1364862   .1734856    -0.79   0.431    -.4765118    .2035393
           gender |   .5883204   .3109881     1.89   0.059     -.021205    1.197846
            peace |  -.2740691   .0569714    -4.81   0.000     -.385731   -.1624072
           peace2 |    .013642   .0038307     3.56   0.000     .0061341      .02115
           peace3 |  -.0001918   .0000722    -2.66   0.008    -.0003332   -.0000503
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Year/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Year/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck milservice lameduck_mil  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(ye
> ar);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -554.42943  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -552.56068  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -552.54734  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -552.54733  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(10)   =     277.29
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -552.54733                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2037

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on year)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.6933285   .2733059    -2.54   0.011    -1.228998   -.1576588
  milservice |   .6134508   .2367533     2.59   0.010     .1494228    1.077479
lameduck_mil |   .1383586   .5368186     0.26   0.797    -.9137866    1.190504
     rivalry |   1.555706   .2257571     6.89   0.000     1.113231    1.998182
     numbord |    .064091   .0296849     2.16   0.031     .0059097    .1222722
  parliament |  -.1048084   .1749404    -0.60   0.549    -.4476854    .2380686
      gender |    .598434    .333428     1.79   0.073    -.0550729    1.251941
       peace |  -.2640348   .0562297    -4.70   0.000    -.3742429   -.1538267
      peace2 |   .0130999   .0039206     3.34   0.001     .0054157    .0207841
      peace3 |  -.0001855   .0000754    -2.46   0.014    -.0003334   -.0000377
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Year/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Year/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Decade Fixed Effects  ***;
. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish lameduck_hawkish  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(d
> ecade);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.29396  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.47762  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.47199  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.47199  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(4)    =          .
                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -637.47199                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1753

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on decade)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
          cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduck |  -.8121899   .3400432    -2.39   0.017    -1.478662   -.1457175
         hawkish |   .3021526   .0771892     3.91   0.000     .1508645    .4534406
lameduck_hawkish |   .1067486   .2047984     0.52   0.602    -.2946489    .5081461
         rivalry |   1.453161   .3295677     4.41   0.000     .8072206    2.099102
         numbord |   .0592003   .0366194     1.62   0.106    -.0125725     .130973
      parliament |  -.2228238   .1486844    -1.50   0.134      -.51424    .0685923
          gender |   .6268266   .1648729     3.80   0.000     .3036817    .9499716
           peace |  -.2397593    .039194    -6.12   0.000    -.3165781   -.1629406
          peace2 |   .0114836   .0024453     4.70   0.000     .0066909    .0162764
          peace3 |  -.0001573   .0000372    -4.23   0.000    -.0002301   -.0000844
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Decade/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Decade/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish2 lameduck_hawkish2  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group
> (decade);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.80583  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.79467  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.78857  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.78856  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  Wald chi2(4)    =          .
                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -639.78856                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1723

                                      (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on decade)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |               Robust
           cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduck |  -.6752058   .2359054    -2.86   0.004    -1.137572   -.2128397
         hawkish2 |   .3184032   .1026464     3.10   0.002     .1172199    .5195865
lameduck_hawkish2 |  -.2073774   .1022417    -2.03   0.043    -.4077675   -.0069872
          rivalry |    1.48834   .3207613     4.64   0.000     .8596594     2.11702
          numbord |   .0582275   .0359262     1.62   0.105    -.0121867    .1286416
       parliament |  -.1719501   .1426711    -1.21   0.228    -.4515803    .1076801
           gender |   .5909805    .214574     2.75   0.006     .1704232    1.011538
            peace |  -.2493603   .0378931    -6.58   0.000    -.3236294   -.1750911
           peace2 |   .0121637   .0023965     5.08   0.000     .0074668    .0168607
           peace3 |  -.0001681   .0000364    -4.61   0.000    -.0002395   -.0000967
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Decade/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Decade/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck milservice lameduck_mil  rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 , robust   group(de
> cade);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -628.92124  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -627.39592  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -627.38676  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -627.38675  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(4)    =          .
                                                  Prob > chi2     =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -627.38675                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1793

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on decade)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -.7659154   .2212423    -3.46   0.001    -1.199542   -.3322885
  milservice |   .5813027   .1436208     4.05   0.000     .2998111    .8627944
lameduck_mil |   .1591116    .238416     0.67   0.505    -.3081752    .6263985
     rivalry |   1.561964    .312369     5.00   0.000     .9497318    2.174196
     numbord |   .0622466   .0326692     1.91   0.057    -.0017838     .126277
  parliament |  -.1444284   .1474821    -0.98   0.327     -.433488    .1446311
      gender |   .5819294   .2205663     2.64   0.008     .1496274    1.014231
       peace |  -.2388345   .0372263    -6.42   0.000    -.3117966   -.1658724
      peace2 |    .011658   .0025533     4.57   0.000     .0066537    .0166623
      peace3 |   -.000163   .0000403    -4.04   0.000     -.000242   -.0000839
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Decade/SimData.dta", replace;
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Decade/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Regional Fixed Effects  ***;
. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish lameduck_hawkish rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  group(region);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -645.86636  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -643.16541  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -643.16077  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -643.16077  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =     182.72
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -643.16077                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1244

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        lameduck |  -1.405245   .3396621    -4.14   0.000    -2.070971   -.7395199
         hawkish |   .1918431   .1099335     1.75   0.081    -.0236226    .4073087
lameduck_hawkish |   .2656447   .2248697     1.18   0.237    -.1750918    .7063812
         rivalry |   1.294851   .1886035     6.87   0.000      .925195    1.664507
         numbord |   .0926255   .0342358     2.71   0.007     .0255246    .1597263
      parliament |   -.363208   .2203719    -1.65   0.099     -.795129    .0687129
          gender |   .6295052   .3025983     2.08   0.037     .0364234    1.222587
           peace |  -.2299091   .0524737    -4.38   0.000    -.3327557   -.1270625
          peace2 |   .0108535   .0041936     2.59   0.010     .0026342    .0190728
          peace3 |  -.0001418   .0000826    -1.72   0.086    -.0003036    .0000201
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexEmpirical/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck hawkish2 lameduck_hawkish2 rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  group(region);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -649.42717  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -646.69483  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -646.69067  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -646.69067  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2245
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =     175.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -646.69067                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1196

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         lameduck |   -1.22438   .3130973    -3.91   0.000    -1.838039   -.6107202
         hawkish2 |   .1464756   .1283699     1.14   0.254    -.1051248    .3980761
lameduck_hawkish2 |  -.0796933   .2634305    -0.30   0.762    -.5960076    .4366209
          rivalry |   1.325446   .1879498     7.05   0.000     .9570707     1.69382
          numbord |   .0956587   .0344113     2.78   0.005     .0282138    .1631036
       parliament |   -.346619   .2309958    -1.50   0.133    -.7993624    .1061245
           gender |   .5616947   .2988735     1.88   0.060    -.0240866    1.147476
            peace |  -.2394065   .0522851    -4.58   0.000    -.3418834   -.1369296
           peace2 |   .0114812   .0041828     2.74   0.006      .003283    .0196793
           peace3 |  -.0001515   .0000826    -1.83   0.067    -.0003133    .0000104
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/IndexTheoretical/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. clogit cwinit lameduck milservice lameduck_mil rivalry numbord parliament gender peace peace2 peace3 ,  group(region);
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -638.89585  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -636.03954  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -636.03414  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -636.03414  

Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regression   Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =     180.31
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -636.03414                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1241

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lameduck |  -1.394754   .3206912    -4.35   0.000    -2.023297   -.7662108
  milservice |   .1284101   .2194676     0.59   0.558    -.3017384    .5585587
lameduck_mil |   .6276923    .517277     1.21   0.225     -.386152    1.641537
     rivalry |   1.344963   .1894051     7.10   0.000     .9737358     1.71619
     numbord |   .0997122   .0343892     2.90   0.004     .0323107    .1671137
  parliament |  -.3878117   .2309611    -1.68   0.093    -.8404871    .0648637
      gender |   .5123561   .3041596     1.68   0.092    -.0837858    1.108498
       peace |  -.2269267   .0528991    -4.29   0.000    -.3306071   -.1232463
      peace2 |   .0105913   .0042136     2.51   0.012     .0023328    .0188499
      peace3 |  -.0001363   .0000829    -1.64   0.100    -.0002988    .0000262
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b10, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/Region/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. *** Variation in Military Service  ***;
. logit cwinit  lameduck milnoncombat  lameduck_noncombat combat  lameduck_combat rivalry numbord parliament gender peace p
> eace2 peace3  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.05715  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -684.20855  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -656.06971  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -655.60579  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -655.60514  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -655.60514  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2175
                                                  Wald chi2(12)   =     213.75
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -655.60514                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1702

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   |               Robust
            cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          lameduck |  -.6951829   .2437719    -2.85   0.004    -1.172967   -.2173987
      milnoncombat |   .4189312   .2979978     1.41   0.160    -.1651339    1.002996
lameduck_noncombat |   .9360153   .6647941     1.41   0.159    -.3669572    2.238988
            combat |   .3677024   .2067636     1.78   0.075    -.0375468    .7729516
   lameduck_combat |  -.5111569   .8439307    -0.61   0.545    -2.165231    1.142917
           rivalry |   1.465014   .1691113     8.66   0.000     1.133562    1.796466
           numbord |   .0869863   .0307133     2.83   0.005     .0267893    .1471832
        parliament |  -.2175474   .1763548    -1.23   0.217    -.5631964    .1281016
            gender |   .4973175   .3009867     1.65   0.098    -.0926055    1.087241
             peace |  -.2351605   .0543113    -4.33   0.000    -.3416087   -.1287123
            peace2 |   .0110751   .0043673     2.54   0.011     .0025154    .0196348
            peace3 |  -.0001419   .0000871    -1.63   0.104    -.0003127    .0000289
             _cons |  -2.175037   .2189716    -9.93   0.000    -2.604213    -1.74586
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b13, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/ServiceType/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/ServiceType/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/ServiceType/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. logit cwinit  lameduck militarycareer lameduck_milcareer milnoncareer lameduck_milnoncareer  rivalry numbord parliament g
> ender peace peace2 peace3  ,  robust;

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -790.68511  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -684.96992  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.92667  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.67234  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.67227  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       2180
                                                  Wald chi2(12)   =     212.06
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -657.67227                 Pseudo R2       =     0.1682

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      |               Robust
               cwinit |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             lameduck |    -.70086   .2435209    -2.88   0.004    -1.178152   -.2235678
       militarycareer |   .2167461   .4019187     0.54   0.590    -.5710001    1.004492
   lameduck_milcareer |   .4725803   .7811473     0.60   0.545     -1.05844    2.003601
         milnoncareer |   .4245557   .1918137     2.21   0.027     .0486077    .8005036
lameduck_milnoncareer |   .2812571   .6167083     0.46   0.648     -.927469    1.489983
              rivalry |   1.462664   .1691496     8.65   0.000     1.131137    1.794192
              numbord |   .0863573   .0305304     2.83   0.005     .0265188    .1461957
           parliament |  -.2017029     .17505    -1.15   0.249    -.5447946    .1413888
               gender |   .4924576   .3018538     1.63   0.103    -.0991649     1.08408
                peace |  -.2406337    .054423    -4.42   0.000    -.3473008   -.1339666
               peace2 |   .0112904   .0043864     2.57   0.010     .0026931    .0198876
               peace3 |  -.0001439   .0000877    -1.64   0.101    -.0003157     .000028
                _cons |  -2.172355   .2174784    -9.99   0.000    -2.598605   -1.746105
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. preserve;

. drawnorm MG_b1-MG_b13, n(10000) means(e(b)) cov(e(V)) clear;
(obs 10000)

. save "/Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/MilitaryCareer/SimData.dta", replace;
(note: file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/MilitaryCareer/SimData.dta not found)
file /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/Military/Conditional/MilitaryCareer/SimData.dta saved

. restore;

. log close;
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/Jeff/Dropbox/TermLimits/Replication/Models/EstimatingModels.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  12 Nov 2016, 20:30:43
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
